A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
